Lakers Host Pelicans in Key Matchup as LA Favors by Double Digits
The Los Angeles Lakers are heavy favorites heading into their Friday night showdown against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans — and for good reason. With an 8-4 record and a league-best 8-3 against-the-spread (ATS) mark, the Lakers enter as a -9.5 to -10.5 point favorite, with moneyline odds hovering around -470. The Pelicans, at 2-9 and on a three-game losing streak, are fighting just to stay relevant. But here’s the thing: this isn’t just another win for LA. It’s a statement game — one that could expose just how far apart these two franchises have drifted in the 2025-2026 season.
Why the Lakers Are So Dominant This Season
The Lakers haven’t just been winning; they’ve been winning with discipline. Their 72.7% ATS record is the third-highest in the NBA, and they’ve covered the spread in six of their last seven meetings against New Orleans. Against the Pelicans specifically, they’ve averaged 121.3 points per game over the last three matchups — including a 136-115 drubbing in March and a 124-108 win in April, both as double-digit favorites. What’s striking isn’t just the scoring; it’s how efficiently they’ve done it. Despite ranking 4th-worst in offensive rebounds (just 9.5 per game), they’ve maintained a top-10 offensive rating by moving the ball and capitalizing on transition chances. Austin Reaves, whose projected points line sits at 21.76 according to Covers.com, has become the quiet engine of their attack — efficient, clutch, and consistently overperforming expectations.
Pelicans’ Struggles Are Deeper Than the Record Suggests
When you look at the Pelicans’ numbers, the 2-9 record only tells part of the story. Their home offense is the slowest in the NBA — a brutal liability when you’re playing against a team like LA that thrives on pace and spacing. Even worse, opposing shooting guards attempt just 1.0 free throws per game against them — the lowest in the league. That means New Orleans’ defense is suffocating perimeter players, but it’s also a sign they’re not generating contact or forcing fouls, which limits their own scoring opportunities. And when they do get chances? They’re failing. The Pelicans are 0-4 this season when facing moneyline underdog odds of +358 or longer. They’ve won just one of 10 games as underdogs overall. That’s not bad luck. That’s a team that doesn’t believe it can win when the odds are stacked.
Betting Trends Tell a Clear Story
Public betting data from Action Network shows 76% of wagers are on the Lakers to cover the spread — a massive consensus that rarely happens in the NBA. Even the computer projection models are aligned: Fox Sports Radio’s model predicts a 120-112 final, totaling 231.6 points, which comfortably clears the 227.5 over/under line. That’s not a fluke. It’s a reflection of how LA’s offense, despite its slow tempo on the road, still outpaces New Orleans’ defensive limitations. The Pelicans have gone over the total in just two of their last five games — and yet, the over is still trending at -110 across multiple sportsbooks. Why? Because when the Lakers play, points come. Even when they’re not shooting well, they force turnovers and convert them. The Pelicans, meanwhile, turn it over too often and struggle to finish at the rim.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Box Score
This game matters because it’s a microcosm of two different paths. The Lakers are building toward contention — their roster is healthy, their chemistry is growing, and their coaching staff is making smart adjustments. The Pelicans? They’re stuck in rebuild mode. Zion Williamson’s absence (still sidelined with lingering knee concerns) has exposed a lack of depth. Brandon Ingram is playing well, but he’s carrying too much. And without a reliable third option, they’re outmatched against elite teams. The fact that they’ve covered the spread in four of their last five games is misleading — three of those were against teams with losing records, and two were at home. This is their first true test against a top-tier opponent since October.
What Happens Next?
If the Lakers win by double digits — and most models say they will — they’ll improve to 9-4, tying them for the Pacific Division lead. More importantly, they’ll extend their dominance over New Orleans to seven straight ATS wins. For the Pelicans, a loss would drop them to 2-10, making it nearly impossible to climb out of the Western Conference basement. And if they cover? That would be their first ATS win against LA since December 2023 — a historic upset. But don’t bet on it. The Pelicans haven’t won a game as a double-digit underdog since 2022.
How to Watch and Where the Action Is
The game tips off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, November 14, 2025. Fans can catch it live on SportsNet LA, Gulf Coast Sports, and Pelicans+. For cord-cutters, Fubo offers full streaming access with multi-device support. A YouTube analysis video from BetUSTV, posted on November 13, features Sean Green, Noops, and Josh breaking down the game’s betting angles — and they’re all leaning heavily on LA. The channel’s members, who pay for exclusive picks, have a 71% win rate on NBA picks this season. That’s not a coincidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Lakers favored so heavily despite their slow offensive tempo?
The Lakers’ tempo is slow, but their efficiency isn’t. They rank in the top 10 in offensive rating and have elite playmakers in LeBron James and Austin Reaves who create high-percentage shots even in half-court sets. The Pelicans’ defense is porous, especially against guards, and LA exploits that. Plus, New Orleans turns the ball over 15.3 times per game — the fifth-worst in the league — giving LA extra possessions.
Has any team covered as a double-digit underdog against the Lakers this season?
No. Since November 1, 2025, the Lakers have played six games as double-digit favorites. They’ve covered all six. Opponents haven’t even come close — the closest was a 9-point loss to Sacramento. The Lakers’ +10.5 point margin is the highest average cover in the NBA this season among teams playing as favorites.
What’s the historical trend between these two teams in New Orleans?
The Lakers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings in New Orleans, covering the spread in 6 of them. The Pelicans’ lone win came in 2023, when Zion Williamson dropped 38 points. Since then, LA has outscored them by an average of 14.7 points per game at the Smoothie King Center. The last time New Orleans covered as a home underdog against LA? October 2021.
Why is the over/under so low when both teams score in the 110s?
The low total (227.5-228.5) reflects the Pelicans’ sluggish home pace — the slowest in the NBA — and the Lakers’ tendency to slow games down on the road. But LA’s offense is so potent that even slow games produce high scores. The model projections show 231.6 points, meaning the over is the smarter play. The line is artificially low because oddsmakers are wary of New Orleans’ defense, not LA’s scoring.
