Aaron Judge Player Props: Home run odds vs. Blue Jays look tempting on September 5

He’s chasing an MVP and leading baseball in average, on-base, and slugging at the same time. That’s the kind of season Aaron Judge is having as the Yankees line up against the Blue Jays on September 5 — and it’s why his home run prop at +200 has everyone’s attention.

Judge comes in with 43 homers, 97 RBIs, and a .324 average. He tops qualified hitters in batting average (.322–.324), OBP (.442), and slugging (.661–.663), and he’s pacing the Yankees in hits (152–153). Add the setting — Yankee Stadium, where his opposite-field power plays — and this matchup hits a lot of the right betting notes.

The opponent matters. Kevin Gausman brings a sturdy 3.75 ERA and his usual mix of four-seamers, a wipeout splitter, and the slider. He’s good at limiting damage when he gets ahead, but Judge has controlled this season series, clearing various prop marks against Toronto at a high clip and averaging 1.1 hits per game versus the Jays in 2025. That history is the backbone of the case for the HR price.

Why the home run prop stands out

At +200, the home run market implies roughly a 33% chance. For most hitters, that’s rich. For Judge — with elite plate discipline, exit velocity, and barrel rates to match his league-best slugging — it’s not crazy. He punishes four-seamers at the top of the zone and can take the splitter the other way if it floats up. The short porch in right doesn’t just help left-handed bats; Judge’s opposite-field carry turns borderline fly balls into souvenirs.

There’s also game flow. The Yankees are 41–29 at home and are projected by models to eke out a 5–4 win about 55% of the time. More Yankees plate appearances in a close, high-leverage game means more chances for Judge to see an extra swing late — and that third or fourth look is often where a fatigued fastball or a mislocated splitter shows up.

But you can’t ignore the other side of the ledger. Judge has gone under his total bases prop in 17 of his last 25 home games and under his hits prop in 16 of his last 25 at Yankee Stadium. That’s the cost of being the scariest bat in the ballpark: fewer pitches in the zone, more nibbling, and a rising walk rate. The same discipline that props up his OBP can quietly drag down hits and total bases on a given night.

Toronto’s angle complicates it. The Blue Jays have handled the Yankees this year (8–3 in the series) and come in at 81–59. They’re also the best “over” team in baseball (80–54–6), which usually screams offense. Yet the total sits at nine, and recent pitching from both sides points to live “under” value if Gausman’s splitter is sharp and the Yankees’ arms keep the ball in the park. That split read — Jays over trend vs. sharper pitching indicators — is why the market hasn’t run away from the nine.

Trends, context, and alternative angles

Judge’s individual trends and the matchup offer a few ways to think about the board:

• Home run price vs. variance: +200 is a short number for a homer, but Judge’s profile can support it. His contact quality and pull/oppo power combo shrink the park and raise the ceiling on any single plate appearance.
• Total bases and hits: The recent unders at home are real. Teams refuse to give him middle-middle pitches. If you like the HR, it may be cleaner than total bases — one swing beats the cat-and-mouse game with singles and doubles that rely on hittable strikes.
• Walks and runs scored: With a .442 OBP and pitchers working around him, a walks prop or a runs-scored angle can be less volatile than hits. One free pass and a gapper behind him can cash.
• Pitch mix dynamics: If Gausman buries the splitter, he can neutralize power. If he’s forced into more heaters in the zone, that’s Judge’s green light. Early at-bats will tell you if the splitter feel is there.
• Late-game exposure: Even if Gausman navigates the first half, bullpen matchups can flip probabilities. A single middle reliever with a shaky fastball command can turn a quiet night into one hard-hit mistake.

Team context matters too. The Yankees sit at 78–62, chasing a Blue Jays club that has kept the upper hand all year. That urgency often shows up in approach: New York will press to maximize Judge’s RBI chances, and he’ll get pitches to hit if traffic builds in front of him. If the lineup runs through cleanly the first time, the second and third time up may bring runners on — and fastballs in count leverage.

There are other props worth a look in this game. Anthony Volpe’s runs under has hit in 19 of his last 25. That supports a slightly cooler read on the Yankees’ table-setting tonight, which in turn adds a bit of risk to Judge’s RBI markets. If you’re balancing exposure, pairing a smaller sprinkle on the HR price with something more conservative like a walks over can smooth variance without leaning on a multi-hit night.

The total at nine is the tug-of-war number. Toronto’s status as the league’s top over team collides with a matchup that can play to fewer balls in play if Gausman lands the splitter and the Yankees chase counts in their favor without expanding. A 5–4 projection gives you a coin flip around the number. If you buy the idea that both sides are a tick sharper right now on the mound, the first five innings under has some logic in theory, though the full-game nine is already acknowledging late scoring risk.

As for the season series, 8–3 for Toronto hides some nuance. Judge has been one of the few Yankee bats to consistently dent Jays pitching this year, clearing his prop lines at about a 70% clip against Toronto and maintaining that 1.1 hits-per-game average in the matchup. In divisional games, especially late-season ones with playoff implications, familiarity can be a weapon for the hitter — he’s seen the splitter, he’s tracked the fastball shape, and he knows how they want to attack him with two strikes.

What could break the HR angle? A tight strike zone that forces Gausman into splitter counts he can bury for chases actually helps Judge, but a wide zone at the knees that gifts splitter strikes can tilt at-bats defensive. Also, if Blue Jays pitching stays disciplined with fastballs off the edge and the slider as a get-me-over strike one, you may see more deep counts and walks than pulled mistakes.

And then there’s Yankee Stadium itself. Judge doesn’t need perfect contact to leave to right-center. The carry to the short porch has bailed out many hitters on sub-optimal swings; for him, it’s a launchpad. That’s the edge you’re buying at +200 — not guaranteed value, but a park and profile that narrows the gap between price and true odds more than most sluggers can claim.

Bottom line for bettors tracking the board: the home run number makes sense if you trust the hitter-pitcher dynamic and the park. The hits and total bases unders at home are a red flag for volume-based props but don’t conflict with a one-swing market. The Jays’ dominance in the series and their over trend muddy the waters on the full-game total, while model projections ever so slightly favor the Yankees in a one-run game. That’s a lot of signal packed into a single night — and a familiar setup where Judge tends to make it simple with one loud swing.